Past year, we will be too many eyes on the on the United States, but the EU has surpassed the U.S. as China’s largest trading partner. Perhaps in 2009, bad news from Europe will have great impact on Chinese economy.

EU economy into recession Deutsche Bank report released on September 4, lower euro zone 2008 growth forecast for 2009 GDP, from 1.7% previously and 0.8% to 1.2% and 0.1%. The bank foreign exchange analysts say the dollar, the current euro exchange rate was substantially overvalued euro and the dollar’s long-term equilibrium exchange rate is about 1.20, that is, the euro depreciated by 20% can be “balanced.” EU’s main think-tank Centre for European Policy Studies Hans? Martens said that the EU economy is entering a standard definition of recession.

Bleak economic outlook in Europe, to the Chinese economy, especially the growth in exports cast a shadow.

Jun Ma, chief economist for Greater China at Deutsche Bank believes that the European economic slowdown in 2009 will be China’s foreign trade experienced the greatest impact. According to his calculations, the euro zone economic growth will slow in 2009 to 0.1%, the euro will depreciate 10% against the yuan, hit by China’s export growth rate of the euro area is likely to 26% from 2008 down to 2009 zero. As the Eurozone and the UK accounted for 20% of total exports of China, Ma is estimated in 2009 the European economy has slowed, the direct effect of a weaker exchange rate, China’s overall export growth rate dropped two percentage points. Moreover, the European economic downturn, the demand for other smaller countries, will lead to China Exports to these regions meet resistance. The two added together, the growth rate of China’s exports may be down 4 percentage points, the impact of China’s GDP up 0.7 percentage points. Which will be hardest hit by the electronics and textiles.

The impact of China’s economic recession in Japan

Addition to Europe, in 2009 the impact of Chinese exports in the face, there is a force from Japan. From the Chinese General Administration of Customs on August 11 the figures released in Japan in 2008, seven months is our third largest trading partner. 7 months ago, my Japanese exports 65.48 billion U.S. dollars, but the trade deficit between China and Japan, and the amount more than last year seven billion U.S. dollars. Same as in Europe, Japan’s current economic situation can be “stagnant” to describe the term (Bank of Japan language), the maintenance of six years of economic expansion or has ended, does not rule out the possibility of recession. Head of Department of Foreign Affairs College of China International Economic and Rui-Ping Jiang that Japan’s major exporting countries of East Asia market, the Japanese economic recession will affect East Asian exports. In addition, if the Japanese economy is a problem, direct investment in China will stop.